I recently went one on one with Olaf Groth, co-author of the new book The Great Remobilization with Mark Esposito, Terence Tse and editor Dan Zehr. Olaf advises and teaches across the US, Europe, Middle East, Africa, South East Asia and China as Professor of Practice for Global Foresight, Strategy, Innovation and Policy at UC Berkeley Haas School of Business and Adjunct at Hult International Business School and as Founder and CEO of Cambrian Futures. Olaf serves as Faculty Director for the Berkeley Executive Education program Future of Technology, Sr. Adviser and Executive-in-Residence at Berkeley’s Institute for Business Innovation, Visiting Scholar at UC Berkeley’s Roundtable on the International Economy (BRIE), and a Venture Adviser at Berkeley Skydeck.

Adam: Thanks again for taking the time to share your advice. First things first, though, I am sure readers would love to learn more about you. How did you get here? What experiences, failures, setbacks, or challenges have been most instrumental to your growth?

Olaf: I realize this may be a treacherous thing to say for a strategist, but becoming this hybrid animal of a CEO of a boutique advisory firm, professor and author mid-career was never part of my personal strategy, as it were. In hindsight, it was a path of experimentation. I did know early in my career that I wanted to be a “global dot connector” across borders, as it were, exploring frontiers, seeing patterns others didn’t, forging and negotiating relationships, and so forth. And that’s why I studied economics and business integrated with diplomacy and policy. But it was more of a set of activities and a specific type of curiosity and hunger, than a discrete goal like a job title or trajectory that I wanted our of my career. In fact, I don’t know that there is a neat title for what I do, or a discrete linear path to get there: Part explorer, part strategist, part diplomat, and part entrepreneur; - there’s no title for it. When you’re like that, managing a steady-state business, isn’t what you’re good at. I have passion for big change, so spending most of my time tweaking and optimizing things here and there is not satisfying and I’m not good at it either. That did not always help me in my career. But that wasn’t even really clear to me until I failed and I didn’t have a choice but to diagnose why. And that’s what made me figure out that I needed to put myself in situations where I value creativity and the freedom to design my own approaches, where I could get a charter to help with a meaningful transformation that leaves a lot of people better off. Then I work through nights and weekends charting a true north to make it happen, building and inspiring teams that do it with me. So, the current era of upheaval where economies, industries and organizations or portfolios are forced to transform is perfect for me. I am not unsettled by change, but addicted to it. That’s why I formed Cambrian Futures and Cambrian Designs and that’s why we wrote the book.

Adam: What do you hope readers take away from your new book?

Olaf: We want them to understand how the global economy and global society, are changing structurally, that we can’t go back or build old structures back, and that we need to shape the new architecture together, so we can get to a better place than what lies behind us. So, we unpack all of this by showing how the five C’s are colliding (COVID, Cognitive Tech & Crypto, Cyber, Climate and China) to yield the new operating logic we have called the Cognitive Economy, which comes with both major pitfalls and tremendous promise. I want them to be inspired by that promise without ignoring the dark side, to see what’s possible, step in and step up. You have to be inspired and deterred at the same time to move forward. But it’s important to re-perceive the uncertainty and volatility not just as risk, but as hidden opportunity. To that end, we not only give people a plausible vision of a future Global 2.0, but a path to navigate. We show them the potential pivots on that path to get us to better global systems and more sustainable, equitable and less fragile global business. There will be a lot of variability, a lot of the “two steps forward one step backward” kind of thing. We will face more low growth or recessionary periods, pandemics and conflict. Accept that but see the raw materials, as it were, to build along the way. There will be ways to build a better understanding of our world through smarter technologies, new forms of governance, new alliances that allow us to bridge or patch or smooth over holes and frictions. Pick those up, keep breathing and keep building. We give you a framework to show how it can work, on a high level.

Adam: What do you believe are the keys to leading in times of crisis, uncertainty, and change?

Olaf: The first rule is be honest about what you see, about the pain and complications in the moment and ahead of us. People know it, they feel it and they don’t need more B.S. in their lives. But at the same time, you give people a plausible and attainable vision 3, 5, 7, 10 years out, not some distant science fiction, and then also show them at least the beginnings of the “yellow brick road,” as it were.  If you do those three things they’re much more likely to overcome anxieties and paralysis and follow your lead, or even lead themselves. The path will change with twists and turns, and you need to be open about that. It’s not static, not edged in stone. That’s how strategy thinking is or should be different today from just 10 years ago – it’s about practicing pivots, how to handle switchbacks. Tell the people you lead that they should expect that. It doesn’t mean we’re failing, but rather that we’re learning, as long as each time, you put creativity and a focus on better designs first. Today when leaders are confronted with major structural change, they pick up people’s fears and feeling of loss. All too often they turn that against some perceived enemy they have to fight to get back what was lost. Instead, turn it to creativity and construction. It’s not about beating back, re-capturing or re-building but about “building better forward.” People always get sentimental about the good old days, but they weren’t so good or they wouldn’t have broken. They became fragile. Move on from there. As a leader you need to show people examples of what that means, as we do in the latter part of the book. Then they may catch the spark. That doesn’t always mean agreement or consensus right away. In fact it shouldn’t. They should rub off on what they read, critique and hack away. That “hacking forward” is what you need to ignite as a leader, not consensus or harmony. Take our book as a launch pad, not a bible. 

Adam: What do you believe are the defining qualities of an effective leader?

Olaf: Every era has leadership archetypes that work better than others. In the book we describe the Design Activist Leader (DAL) model which exhibits four core leadership capabilities:  The first one is Zeroth Principles Thinking that allows you to go beyond first principles. First principles are old rules and assumptions about what’s true. But it may no longer be true amidst structural change and chaos when everything is thrown up into the air, as it was during the pandemic. You need to see new emerging rules, operating logics and building blocks, like we do in the book. Next is Foresight and Systems Diagnostics. A DAL needs to understand where local and global systems are breaking and why, what makes them over-pressurized and fragile, how do they interlock and cascade like dominos, and which stakeholders (or industry participants, for that matter) are impacted in which way. How are they likely going to react? And how should you position yourself and the people you lead in that emerging picture? As you determine that, it’s easy to fall into adversarial, protective, defensive postures. But a DAL who sees the larger picture doesn’t do that. Rather, they exercise Empathy Across Tribes and Clubs in a fragmenting economy which creates a lot of insecurities. - That’s the third capability. The fourth is the ability to string allied actors, tribes and clubs together, so you can form networks across economies, markets, industries, communities. In an era in which the largest global markets, like China, India, Africa, Europe and even the US (although I’m convinced we’re at a juncture that could become a new American Renaissance) are wobbly you need to redefine scale along networks of smaller units. And those networks need to shape-shift with agility, which is where AI, smart supply chains, data science, etc., and new types of domain diplomacy come in.

Adam: What are your best tips on building, leading, and managing teams?

Olaf: In an increasingly fragmented and volatile world identity is the most tender element within teams and trust is the most important currency to build or rebuild among members.  Dramatic change often means people aren’t or don’t feel valued anymore. Tensions are everywhere, the economics of their lives aren’t working out anymore, rules are changing on them and they can’t progress. That’s when behaviors become non-linear and things have the greatest potential for going off the rails. Teams that aren’t aligned, or the members of which don’t pull or root for each other are fragile systems on the smallest level subject to fractures and then they don’t perform well. Lead with humanity and empathy. As leaders even we feel this, so let’s not pretend that we don’t, just because we have the bigger carrots and sticks, titles or paychecks.  Then, design a new charter for the team that buffers the shocks and confronts the uncertainty head on. You can’t run away from it – call it out, give it a shape. There are techniques how to do that. And if your teams don’t have all it takes, create new allies across the organization and externally, build new relationships, shift people into new roles or rebuild their job descriptions, give them mandates to find new fixes themselves, give them more say in that, not less. Depending on the chaos or crisis at hand, you might need to go fully “Apollo 13” and create urgency around a life-saving mission, some kind of workout scenario. When you’re in that kind of setting, the differences, the “othering” become complementary skills toward averting disaster. No better way to build trust and create glue than people seeing the others stepping in for each other.

Adam: How can leaders and aspiring leaders take their leadership skills to the next level?

Olaf: I think too many leaders spell leadership with a capital L, as it were, which is to say that it’s a position, or a degree of power, remuneration, respect and status they get. All those things are part of the mix of course. But at the same time there are lots of leadership opportunities of different types every day that allow you to hone your toolkit. How many CEOs do you see working in a soup kitchen? How many senior government leaders go into high school classrooms inspiring kids about to go to college for service to the country or the community? If your community, city, or neighborhood are struggling, do you step in to share your skills and practice new ones? A good friend, who had been a senior corporate leader, said to me once that government service was very difficult, because things are often not linear in that world where stakeholder consensus negotiation, politics, etc., creates lots of loops and pauses. But in this world of frequently re-aligning networks of allied tribes, clubs, etc., exactly that capability to drive productive change forward in a non-linear environment is critical. So, we as business leaders can learn from community or government leaders, because reductionist, overly linear command-and-control paradigms in large corporations won’t work in this non-linear era. Take a sabbatical and work in government for a while. Some countries, like Singapore, for instance, are actually doing exactly that the other way around – policy makers and diplomats serving in business. Lots of things to be said about that, but standing in each others’ shoes for a while is never a bad thing and always good training. Not to mention the networks you get and need to build alliances across. Networks can swing with non-linearity and shocks, but rigid structures usually don’t.

Adam: What are your three best tips applicable to entrepreneurs, executives, and civic leaders?

Olaf: One, get smart on AI and data science. Learn as much about emerging technologies that bring so much disruption in our lives, including on the geopolitical level, by the way, as you can. No matter what your age or seniority, or the nature of your organization, you will benefit from knowing how things work on a high level and how we can shape the technologies to fit our purpose. That’s key: technology needs to serve humans, not the other way around. Too often I see tech being used to metricize, quantify and control employees. Don’t get me wrong: using a smart watch to understand your body’s health better is a good thing. Using cognitive technologies to surveil and objectify people, to have them compete and play against each other, or to amplify existing biases is the wrong way to go. Numbers and efficiency should never drown out the tenet that we are or should be here to create better situations, lives or livelihoods for people. So, that’s number two: always always always see the person, the humanity in them and in yourself. Never forget that that’s why you’re in it. The numbers, the money, the glory will follow. And third, please read books, lots of books. A friend of mine, who was NATO’s top commander and wrote the foreword for our last book, Admiral (ret.) Jim Stavridis, reads 100 per year. You may not be able to do that, but read 10 or 20. Books teach you commitment to ideas, depth of exploration and immersion, they crank the imagination, they create intimacy with the world around you or the future that could be, as in our book’s case. And get off social media. I realize it’s a necessary tool and often rewarding, but also a tremendous time sink. Don’t confuse followers and likes with meaning or success in life. 10 real relationships in flesh and blood are worth more than 10,000 network connections. I guess that’s a fourth tip: be a networker, but don’t mistake social networks for real networks of trust, intimacy and utility.

Adam: What is the single best piece of advice you have ever received?

Olaf: I have lots of those.  One illuminating moment early in my career, right out of graduate school, was when I met with a retiring VP in his beautiful big office on the 30th floor of a shiny office building in downtown San Francisco. He said “You know, I had a good career. I saw much of the world and made good money. I can retire without worries and that’s more than many people can say at my age. But there’s one thing I never did: I never asked myself ‘What else could I do with my life? How else could I have impact? What else would be more satisfying and meaningful to me?’ So, do me and yourself a favor: Once ever so often ask yourself that question. Don’t stay in one trajectory because you never asked it. Stay in it or switch it because you asked it.” I thought that was very powerful and I have heeded his advice many times since.

I also like this line quote, because I use it to remind myself when things get all too serious that you need to inject levity and fun ever so often and that I need to practice a deep passion for life while always embracing forward-movement, growth and exploration. And come one, what’s more fun than that – playful exploration?

“Live as if you were to die tomorrow. Learn as if you were to live forever.” – Mahatma Gandhi

Adam: Is there anything else you would like to share?

Olaf: Yes, there’s one thing that’s very near and dear to me, because I teach and mentor them: the next generations both Y and Z.

Why? - You know, our book is about a big paradigm change and how we can lead through it with better visions, strategies, and solutions. That can’t work if we as leaders think we have all the answers. We don’t. Harness the creativity, the ideas and ideals of as many people as you can, but especially the next generation. Bring them into the fold quickly, mentor and coach them. You need them. They think and work differently. Those differences aren’t trivial, I admit, and especially the COVID Gen Z’ers are traumatized. But there’s also a very potent mix there: They are more global, more stakeholder and purpose-minded, more social justice and climate aware, more digital, and even AI-native. I can tell you they are a treasure trove of good ingredients for the overall mix you need to navigate the rapids if you can motivate and harness their superpowers and not just belabor how they’re different. After all, they will live in the world we’re building forward longer than you or I. Coach them, mentor them, enlist them. They want it and they are grateful for it. Give them your wisdom, give them purpose and agency, develop them and you’ll be a better leader for it. A good friend of mine, who’s a very successful serial SVP of HR once told me that the leadership style focused on mentoring and coaching is one of the most undervalued styles out there. Too often we see the leader as a singular person, as an alpha animal or a sage or a visionary. But what’s needed for this era are leaders who can build and orchestrate a hive brain across generations. Be that.


Adam Mendler is an entrepreneur, writer, speaker, educator, and nationally-recognized authority on leadership. Adam is the creator and host of the business and leadership podcast Thirty Minute Mentors, where he goes one on one with America's most successful people - Fortune 500 CEOs, founders of household name companies, Hall of Fame and Olympic gold medal-winning athletes, political and military leaders - for intimate half-hour conversations each week. A top leadership speaker, Adam draws upon his insights building and leading businesses and interviewing hundreds of America's top leaders as a top keynote speaker to businesses, universities, and non-profit organizations. Adam has written extensively on leadership and related topics, having authored over 70 articles published in major media outlets including Forbes, Inc. and HuffPost, and has conducted more than 500 one on one interviews with America’s top leaders through his collective media projects. Adam teaches graduate-level courses on leadership at UCLA and is an advisor to numerous companies and leaders. A Los Angeles native, Adam is a lifelong Angels fan and an avid backgammon player.

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